Norway Leads Underdogs: Breaking Down the 2026 World Cup Quarterfinals

With just eight matches left in the 2026 World Cup, four of them are quarterfinal ties. And while each pairing has a clear favorite, the margins of upset are far from identical. France vs Morocco (79% – 21%) The reigning runners-up meet Morocco again after their semifinal clash four years ago. France haven't been flawless – Paraguay roughed them up in the Round of 16, but Les Bleus still ground out a 1-0 win. Morocco remain a tournament-hardened side, but beating the current vice-champions would rank as a genuine shock. Spain vs Belgium (75% – 25%) On paper, Spain vs Belgium looks like a heavyweight bout. In reality, Belgium haven't looked like a top-tier side this tournament, though their Round of 16 win over the USA was impressive. Spain, by contrast, have been the tournament's defensive rock – still yet to concede a goal after five matches. That record alone makes La Roja heavy favorites. Norway vs England (35% – 65%) Experts rate this as the most balanced quarterfinal. England carry more star power and big-game experience, but Norway already proved they can topple giants by beating Brazil. The question is whether Erling Haaland and Co. can repeat that against an English side that rarely loses control of a match. Argentina vs Switzerland (71% – 29%) The defending champions have stumbled through the knockouts. First a narrow escape against Cape Verde, then a slog past Egypt. Now they face a well-drilled Swiss team that won't give an inch. If Argentina continue to struggle, Switzerland have a real window for an upset. Still, pre-match odds favor Messi's team.