Stats deep dive: Who has the edge in the World Cup semifinals?

With Argentina, England, France and Spain all two wins from glory, the numbers tell a fascinating story about how each team reached this stage. Playing time adjustments reveal the true picture: France have been the most dangerous attacking side, averaging the most goals, the joint-highest shot count, and the best Expected Goals per 90 minutes. Argentina, the reigning champions, have been the most clinical, converting 18% of their chances en route to 17 goals — the most in the tournament. Spain, despite taking as many shots as France (110), have only managed 11 goals, nearly a goal per game fewer. England, while slightly less creative in terms of chance creation, have still averaged more than two goals per game thanks to the finishing of Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Defensively, Spain have been a fortress, conceding just one goal all tournament — that came in the quarterfinal win against Belgium. France have leaked only two goals across six games. England and Argentina, by contrast, have each conceded six, with England giving up the most chances and Argentina struggling most to keep opponents out. When adjusted for playing time, Argentina have actually covered the least ground and made the fewest sprints of the four remaining sides, often being outrun by their opponents. Spain are the hardest workers, leading in distance covered, sprints, and high presses. Possession and passing belong to Spain — 66% average possession and joint-best accuracy (90.4%, tied with Argentina). England pose a unique aerial threat: Thomas Tuchel's side have scored four headed goals, more than any other team, and have attempted 24 headed shots. Argentina’s weakness in aerial duels (worst success rate among the four) could be exploited. Lionel Messi has been the tournament’s most prolific through-ball passer with 15, while France’s front four are the most likely to take on defenders one-on-one. The semifinals promise contrasting styles: France’s relentless attack against Spain’s unyielding defense, and England’s aerial power against Argentina’s clinical efficiency.