Can Lionel Messi Pull Off a Historic Ballon d'Or Win at 39?

The 2026 Ballon d'Or race is wide open, and that might just open the door for a legendary figure still plying his trade in Major League Soccer. This year's edition of football's most prestigious individual prize is set to be awarded on October 26, and with the World Cup concluded, there is no clear favorite. The award now covers a summer-to-spring season and is voted on by top journalists from the 100 highest-ranked FIFA nations, but at its core, it's a popularity contest. Harry Kane is the current bookmakers' favorite thanks to a staggering goal tally in 2025/26, but his candidacy has clear weaknesses. The England striker is not a universally popular pick (except among English voters), he won neither the World Cup nor the Champions League, and most of his goals came in a Bundesliga that Bayern Munich are expected to dominate. Lamine Yamal looks like the most likely recipient after a domestic double with Barcelona and a World Cup win at just 19. The 2025 runner-up recorded 24 goals and 18 assists in 2025/26. Yet he is far from an overwhelming favorite — Barcelona crashed out of the Champions League, and he struggled with injury at the World Cup. 2024 winner Rodri had an unbelievable World Cup, claiming the Golden Ball, but endured a poor club season with Manchester City. Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot in the World Cup, LaLiga, and the Champions League, but finished the campaign without a single trophy. Ousmane Dembele, the 2025 winner, spent much of the early season injured and never reached his previous heights. PSG retained their Champions League crown, but it appears a longshot that any of their players will win. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha both had outstanding seasons, but the former missed the World Cup and the latter struggled there — recency bias always plays a role. Michael Olise had an all-timer of a season at Bayern Munich, but went missing in the key Champions League second leg against PSG and also for France in the latter World Cup stages. Erling Haaland won the Premier League Golden Boot and was a World Cup darling, but lacks major silverware for his 2025/26. The same goes for Premier League Player of the Season Bruno Fernandes. Jude Bellingham had a great World Cup for England but was part of Real Madrid's disastrous season, much of which he spent nursing shoulder and hamstring injuries. Pedri was incredible for Barcelona early on, then his form fell off a cliff due to being overplayed, and he lost his place in Spain's starting XI at the World Cup. Declan Rice should have a genuine shot after being Arsenal's iron man during their Premier League-winning season — but, as the article notes, who will actually vote for Declan Rice? So what about Lionel Messi? The 39-year-old won MLS Cup last winter, became the first player in MLS history to be named MVP in consecutive seasons, and claimed the league's Golden Boot with 29 goals in 28 games. Had Argentina won the World Cup, he would comfortably have beaten Rodri to the Golden Ball. Spain's midfielder would not have won that award if Messi had led the Albiceleste to back-to-back World Cups. He was the only reason Argentina even reached the final, unplayable whenever he got on the ball. In possession, he remains comfortably the best player in the world. No other player has that kind of narrative. With no standout candidate, Messi's story — a 39-year-old MVP and Golden Boot winner in MLS, dragging Argentina to a World Cup final — could be enough to earn him a historic eighth Ballon d'Or.