What will Jackson bring to Villa with Watkins set for exit?

Aston Villa have completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, with Ollie Watkins looking set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal. Unai Emery's Villa are undergoing a major overhaul this summer, with key players including Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne having already departed. Jackson, 25, joins a number of new additions including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri. That level of squad disruption was evident on the opening weekend, when Emery's side slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Brighton . With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa started without a recognised centre-forward - Emiliano Buendia led the line. The arrival of Jackson - who overtakes Manzambi to become Villa's record signing - from Chelsea gives Emery a specialist striker to work with. It also looks set to coincide with the end of Watkins' six-year spell at Villa, during which he scored 108 goals in 278 games and became one of the defining players of the rise under Emery. However, the stats suggest Jackson is not just a like-for-like replacement for the England international - he is a different type of number nine. More involved, more shots - but a smaller sample On the surface, Jackson's numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa. The Senegal forward scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90. Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2. His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins' 5.6. That fits a pattern which predates his spell in Germany. Among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than Jackson's 0.55. Getting into scoring positions has rarely been Jackson's main problem - it is his ability to finish chances which has attracted scrutiny. During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea , he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign. Jackson has converted 18 of 61 big chances in England so far, although Watkins has also missed plenty of high-value opportunities (scoring 24 of 73 since joining Villa in 2020). Interestingly, last season's numbers suggest the gap between them was negligible. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances, compared with 18.9% and 43.2% respectively for Watkins. There is, however, an important caveat. Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta says his relatively limited, substitute-heavy sample could make some of his per-90 figures look stronger than they might over a full season. Are Villa getting a different type of striker? Both players were predominantly used as centre-forwards last season, making the comparison reasonably fair. Watkins played 100% of his 3,837 minutes as a striker, with 92% coming as the central striker in Villa's 4-2-3-1. Jackson spent 95% of his 1,320 minutes up front, with the remaining 5% on the left. At Bayern, 86% of his playing time came as the striker in a 4-2-3-1. The similarity largely ends there. Jackson averaged 46.6 open-play touches per 90, compared with Watkins' 29.5, and completed almost twice as many passes - 24 per 90 to Watkins' 11.6. He was also considerably more involved in creating and progressing attacks. Jackson averaged: 1.6 shot-ending carries per 90, compared with Watkins' 0.8 1.6 successful take-ons per 90, compared with 0.82 2.5 passes into the penalty area per 90, compared with 0.7. Opta's touch maps reinforce the difference. Watkins' involvement was concentrated more heavily around the centre of the final third and penalty area, while Jackson received possession across a wider range of attacking zones. Among a sample of 1,577 top-five European league strikers over the past 10 seasons, Jackson ranked in the 85th percentile for chances created, 77th for progressive carries and 73rd for touches. Watkins ranked in the 28th, 53rd and eighth percentiles respect